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Will China's rise as a global superpower be peaceful? Show more Show less
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China will surpass the United States economically and is making huge military and technological progress. Will China's rise to global superpower status be peaceful? Or will China's rise not be peaceful due to its authoritarianism and territorial disputes?

No, China's rise will not be peaceful Show more Show less

China's authoritarian behaviour, poor human rights record, and increasingly aggressive foreign policy make conflict likely.
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China cannot co-exist economically with the USA

The trade war between China and the USA is based on a realisation amongst policy officials in America that there is room for only one economic super power in the world.
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The Argument

China's rise has been built on unfair and at times illegal economic practices, including espionage and the regular theft of intellectual property. The US President Donald Trump has regularly cited China as a 'currency manipulator', deliberately devaluing its currency to game the international trade system.[1] These tensions have led to a trade war between China and the United States of America, as both parties have announced tariffs on each other’s goods. Some have speculated that this trade war is not simply the manifestation of a personal grudge by the US President, but a realisation among policy officials in America that there is room for only one economic super power in the world.

Counter arguments

China remains the largest manufacturing base in the world and is integral to the functioning of the international supply chain. Its future prosperity is directly linked with this role. Therefore it would not be in China's interest to allow a conflict that might jeopardise its industrial base. Aside from manufacturing, China also has a burgeoning middle class who aspire to high living standards and a rich elite who enjoy the ability to invest their wealth abroad. The aspirations of both these influential groups within China are tied to the continuation of open markets between China and the rest of the world.

Premises

[P1] The US and China have entered into a trade war. [P2] This will only escalate as it becomes clear there can only be one world economic superpower.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P2] China's economic prospering has positive knock-on effects for the rest of the world.

References

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/13/trump-drop-labeling-china-currency-manipulator-report/

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This page was last edited on Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 09:48 UTC

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