A state that is more dependent on another is not likely to engage in actions that could lead to conflict with that state. In those nations, the business elites, who stand to lose the most from trade disruptions, will also lobby the government to avoid conflict or military aggression against a trading partner.
A recent study examined inter-state military conflict between 290,040 country pairs between 1950 and 2000. It concluded that the higher the interdependence in bilateral trade between the country partners, the lower the chance of military conflict. For every 10% increase in bilateral trade, the probability of military conflict between the partners decreases by 0.1%. If the two states share a border, the probability decreases by 1.9%. Even if the two states do not have substantial bilateral trade, if the pair are part of trading blocs like the EU, the Mercosur or ASEAN, and other nations in the bloc have significant import and export levels with the opposing nation, they are also less likely to engage in military conflict. Because the promotion of global trade and international open markets is at the heart of globalization, it can be seen as a pacifying force.
This argument has been debunked by history. Famously, Norman Angell published a book shortly after the turn of the century entitled ‘The Great Illusion’. Angell argued that Germany and Britain were so deeply economically interdependent that war between the two great nations was unthinkable. Within a few years of the book’s publication, Britain and Germany were engaged in battle in the First World War.  It, therefore, becomes impossible to conclude that globalization and increased bilateral trade leads to peace. The two bloodiest and most mutually destructive wars in history, the First World War and the Second World War, saw nations with strong economic ties clash on the battlefields of Europe.
[P1] States with higher levels of bilateral trade are less likely to engage in military conflict. [P2] Globalization promotes bilateral trade between states. [P3] Therefore, Globalization promotes peace.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P1] History shows this premise to be inaccurate.