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When will coronavirus end? Show more Show less
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It is July 28th, 2020. With lockdowns easing all over the world, some say a second wave of coronavirus will come into force by the end of the year. Others that the pandemic will fade. Is this true? How long before we get rid of the coronavirus?

The coronavirus pandemic will end by January 2021 (in 6 months) Show more Show less

Masks, hand-washing, and social distancing are allowing countries to get control and open back up.
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Infections will be insignificant in number

Preventative measures, combined with societal knowledge of the virus, a vaccine, and antibody treatments, will drastically reduce the number of people infected with Covid-19. If society takes the necessary precautions to prevent further outbreaks, the pandemic will be over by January.

The Argument

A recent study from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London shows that, despite countries easing lockdowns and re-opening, the rates of infection have been insignificant.[1] Samir Bhatt, a co-author of the report and an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said this data can be attested to the global population's increasing willingness to implement social distancing and preventative measures into their daily lives. The use of face masks has been proven to reduce the spread of Covid-19, and the global population has shown increased compliance in using them.[2] According to an ongoing study by YouGov, a vast majority of the population in most countries are wearing masks, including 76% in the U.S., 86% in France, and 89% in Spain.[3] This is in stark contrast to data from April, which shows less than 50% of people in most countries wearing masks. The UK, for example, had 10% of respondents say they were wearing masks in April. That number has since jumped to 76%. If states continue to monitor transmission but ease lockdown restrictions, cases will not make the jump that so many fear. However, lockdown measures cannot be seen as a one-time thing. Lockdowns may continue over the next year, possibly even two. But, the general public is taking the pandemic more seriously than in the past, which would make lockdowns less lengthy and fewer in number, according to several studies that map the possible trends of the virus. [4] While social distancing measures and lockdowns may persist long after January, the global pandemic will be less extreme. The fear associated with the pandemic, the skyrocketing rates of infection and deaths, and the panic that those bring to society will be nullified.

Counter arguments

It is naive to assume that people will continue to follow strict social distancing guidelines on their own, if not mandated by the state. A possible reason for the sharp uptick in mask compliance in many countries is nationwide mask mandates, like we've seen in the UK, France, and Spain. [5] Without universal and overwhelming compliance, which can really only be done through strict enforcement, the pandemic will continue to persist long after January, and the numbers will continue to rise at an alarming rate.[6]

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Premises

Rejecting the premises

References

  1. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/79643
  2. https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818
  3. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2020/07/27/face-mask-use-surges-after-becoming-compulsory-sho
  4. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html
  5. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/which-countries-are-requiring-face-masks
  6. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/u-s-coronavirus-deaths-projected-to-more-than-double-to-410000-by-january-idUSKBN25V2A7

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This page was last edited on Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 12:15 UTC

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