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When will coronavirus end? Show more Show less
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It is July 28th, 2020. With lockdowns easing all over the world, some say a second wave of coronavirus will come into force by the end of the year. Others that the pandemic will fade. Is this true? How long before we get rid of the coronavirus?

The coronavirus pandemic won't end until at least July 2022 (2 years) Show more Show less

A second wave in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres is likely, and we are unsure if those that have had the virus cannot get reinfected.
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A second wave is upcoming

A second wave of cases is likely to surge in 2021 that may be worse than the initial 2020 outbreak. With the high likelihood of a dual virus and flu pandemic, alongside many premature reopenings, a second wave of cases may lead the pandemic well into 2022.

The Argument

The coronavirus pandemic will not end until at least July 2022 because there is a second wave coming in 2021. According to public health experts, there is at least one more cycle of the virus heading into the upcoming fall and winter that will make its way through 2021.[1] Not only is this second wave highly probable, but public health experts expect this wave to be much worse than the initial outbreak.[2] Experts anticipate that the public will have to deal with a volatile flu season alongside the coronavirus pandemic. This would prolong the pandemic until at least the middle of 2022 because the flu and coronavirus would be competing for the same public health resources. If hospital beds, ventilators, and personal protective equipment are also being used for patients with the flu, the situation will overburden hospital and healthcare systems to the point of prolonging the pandemic.[3] The second wave of infections is also likely as things begin to reopen. More businesses and places of work are beginning to open for in-person activities. In the upcoming spring, more schools and universities will reopen for in-person learning.[3] The reopening of such institutions will likely cause a spike in infections and spark the second wave. This pandemic will be prolonged until at least July 2022 because of the second wave of infections that will take place in 2021 and take time to control.

Counter arguments

The coronavirus pandemic will be over before July 2022. The anticipated second wave of infections will only amount to a huge problem if there isn't a vaccine that is developed and distributed. Because numerous vaccines are in clinical trials around the world[4] and are set to be available and distributed as early as the end of this year or early 2021, the second wave should not be able to prolong the pandemic into July 2022. Herd immunity will be built by the majority of the population and the pandemic will come to an end.

Proponents

Premises

Rejecting the premises

References

  1. https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2020/9/21/21448914/coronavirus-covid-19-spike-cases
  2. https://www.axios.com/cdc-redfield-coronavirus-second-wave-f1fb0a1b-9639-43e4-86c5-8cdc2867bf04.html
  3. https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/08/27/flu-season
  4. https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/covid-19-vaccine-race

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This page was last edited on Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 04:47 UTC

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