It is July 28th, 2020. With lockdowns easing all over the world, some say a second wave of coronavirus will come into force by the end of the year. Others that the pandemic will fade. Is this true? How long before we get rid of the coronavirus?
The coronavirus pandemic will end in July 2021 (1 Year)Show moreShow less
While a second wave may arrive this winter, with good government and public health and a fast tracked vaccine we are well on the way to getting this under control.
Elections held in the United States, Europe, Africa and South America could usher in new leadership by the new year—leadership that could shift the tide of the pandemic.
In the United States, there is a strong likelihood that the Democrats will take back the Senate and win the Presidency, giving them an overwhelming majority in government. One of the leading polling aggregates, FiveThirtyEight run by esteemed pollster Nate Silver, ran simulation models for the U.S. election over 40,000 times and found that Biden wins in 83% of them. Further, Biden's likelihood to win has crept up 5 percentage points since the Presidential Debate last week. If elected, Biden has stated he will listen to all major health officials and work closely with state and local governments to keep Americans safe. 
In Africa and South America—two continents that have been ravaged by coronavirus—a change in high office could also lead to swift action to contain the virus. If new leaders enact lockdown measures or prohibit gatherings and mandate mask-wearing, as the UK has done, it could lead to a drastic drop in new coronavirus cases by the middle of next year. 
Biden is not guaranteed to be elected. There's still a month between now and November, and that's plenty of time for the President to swing things in his favor. Also, despite the UK's best efforts, they're in the midst of another steep spike in coronavirus cases. Not only is the U.S. election still uncertain, but the change in leadership and all the measures that come with it might not even lead to a dip in infections.