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How will coronavirus change the world? Show more Show less
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COVID-19 has torn through the fabric of our lives all over the world - with over 20M cases and nearly 1M deaths, and a global collapse in GDP that is historically unprecedented. Will it have long term impact, and what will that look like - economically, politically, and socially?

Coronavirus will impact global politics Show more Show less

As coronavirus spreads, political institutions and actors will inevitably react.
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Trump will win the election because of coronavirus

Coronavirus will boost Trump's popularity, resulting in a 2020 Presidential win.
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The Argument

There is a significant likelihood that coronavirus will actually be the thing that wins Trump the Presidential election. The rapid spread of the virus gives credibility to Trump's rhetoric on globalism, which he has long stated he rejects.[1] This is in contrast to China, who has come to embrace globalism, while also being the centre of the coronavirus outbreak. Globalism has certainly aided the spread of coronavirus, while also being in part to blame for the way in which the outbreak quickly affected the US economy. Trump will be able to leverage this into political capital, boosting his approval ratings and winning himself the Presidency. Additionally, should the epidemic have disappeared or be under control by mid-2020, this is likely to afford a significant economic boost to the US and credibility to the Trump administration, just in time for the election.[2]

Counter arguments

Coronavirus exposes the significant failings both of the Trump administration in particular and the United States as a whole. It shows the unpreparedness of major institutions for any kind of emergency, and Trump's response has been lackluster at best. The virus is a disaster waiting to happen for the US, one which will significantly cost Trump going into the 2020 election.

Premises

[P1] The outbreak of coronavirus discredits globalism. [P2] Trump has been vocally anti-globalism. [P3] Therefore, coronavirus may deliver Trump a political boost.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P3] The way in which the virus has exposed the failings of the Trump administration will hurt Trump's chances at re-election far more than the virus will benefit him.

References

  1. https://time.com/5406130/we-reject-globalism-president-trump-took-america-first-to-the-united-nations/
  2. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/how-a-coronavirus-pandemic-could-impact-the-2020-election-economy.html

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This page was last edited on Friday, 28 Aug 2020 at 09:20 UTC

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