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When will coronavirus end? Show more Show less
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It is July 28th, 2020. With lockdowns easing all over the world, some say a second wave of coronavirus will come into force by the end of the year. Others that the pandemic will fade. Is this true? How long before we get rid of the coronavirus?

The coronavirus pandemic will end by January 2021 (in 6 months) Show more Show less

Masks, hand-washing, and social distancing are allowing countries to get control and open back up.
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A vaccine will be widely available

Scientists and researchers estimate that, if everything goes perfectly, a Covid-19 vaccine will be available by the end of 2020. Administering the vaccine to a large portion of the population by January isn't impossible.

The Argument

Researchers, scientists, and politicians all over the globe estimate that a Covid-19 vaccine will be available by the end of the year or by January 2021. If any of the hundreds of vaccines currently in developments can get approved and distributed to the most vulnerable populations by January, the vaccines would stop the novel coronavirus in its tracks. Covid-19 vaccines have been on a fast-development track during the pandemic, with 42 vaccines already approved for use on humans and five vaccines moving past phase 3 of development and into early or limited use. [1] Despite the 12-18 month development time required for most other vaccines, countries like the U.S. have launched programs to give companies governmental support and speed up the process.[2] Under this new program, the U.S. hopes to produce and distribute 300 million doses of a Covid-19 vaccine by January 2021. If the U.S. program meets its goals, there will be enough vaccines available for 90% of the U.S. population to be vaccinated. Not only could this drastically lower death rates, but it would also almost stop new infections from happening altogether, in part because of an estimated herd immunity threshold for Covid that is between 60 and 43 percent.[3] This means that if a near majority of the population can be somehow immune to the coronavirus—either through previous infection or vaccine immunity—the infection rate would plummet, causing the virus to fizzle out. [4] A vaccine being distributed all over the world by January is a lofty goal. But, if that goal can be met, the coronavirus pandemic as we know it will be over.

Counter arguments

Some scientists estimate the fast-track development of Covid-19 vaccines could backfire. The public must have faith in a vaccine, and the pace at which development and testing is occurring can possibly disregard human safety and backfire on the population as a whole. [5] Further, curbing the pandemic with a vaccine requires an overwhelming majority of the population to be vaccinated, and an AP poll published in May showed just 50% of Americans are willing to get the vaccine. [6] If the majority of people in the U.S.—and the world—refuse to get a vaccine, the pandemic will be far from over by January.

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Premises

Rejecting the premises

References

  1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
  2. https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html
  3. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-herd-immunity-threshold.html
  4. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00451-5
  5. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02706-6
  6. https://apnews.com/article/dacdc8bc428dd4df6511bfa259cfec44

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This page was last edited on Tuesday, 29 Sep 2020 at 12:08 UTC

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