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When will coronavirus end? Show more Show less
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It is July 28th, 2020. With lockdowns easing all over the world, some say a second wave of coronavirus will come into force by the end of the year. Others that the pandemic will fade. Is this true? How long before we get rid of the coronavirus?

The coronavirus pandemic won't end until at least July 2022 (2 years) Show more Show less

A second wave in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres is likely, and we are unsure if those that have had the virus cannot get reinfected.
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A safe vaccine will not be available until mid-late 2021

Even though epidemiologists are working as fast as possible to produce a vaccine, a safe and effective vaccine will not begin to be distributed until middle to late 2021. It won't be immediately available and accessible to everyone.

The Argument

The coronavirus pandemic won’t end until at least July 2022 because of the time it will take to develop a safe and effective vaccine. Currently, the world's scientists, drugmakers, and governments are moving with unprecedented haste to develop a vaccine against the virus.[1] However, even with such haste, public health experts predict that a vaccine won’t be ready to be distributed at scale until middle to late 2021. These vaccines are predicted to take this long because developing an efficacious and safe vaccine is difficult and methodical work. Vaccine development is broken into several stages: the exploratory stage, preclinical trials, clinical trials, and regulatory review. These stages all occur before scaling up production, which can take a while.[2] Even when the vaccine is ready to be distributed at scale, it will take time for large-scale distribution to the public to occur. As an Emory University vaccine expert puts it, “It’s not like we can expect 7 billion doses the day after licensure so we can vaccinate the whole world”. [1] Therefore, while vaccine development is moving at an unprecedented pace, it is not feasible for the pandemic to end until well into 2022 because of how long vaccine distribution will take.

Counter arguments

The coronavirus pandemic will end well before July 2022 because a vaccine will be ready and distributed earlier than some might presume. The U.S. FDA, who is responsible for vaccine approval, is considering new guidelines that would push the authorization of a vaccine past election day.[3] Many, including the President of the United States, are calling this move “political.” Donald Trump has told the American people that he will override the FDA if they release tougher standards and have the vaccine distributed as quickly as possible.[3] Four vaccines are already in the final stage of clinical trials in the United States. This is a promising number of vaccines and a promising stage to be in.[3] There is a high likelihood that a successful vaccine may be ready at the end of 2020 or early 2021. Additionally, according to the WHO, 172 countries are now engaged in discussions to participate in COVAX, a global initiative aimed at working with vaccine manufacturers to provide countries worldwide equitable access to safe and effective vaccines.[4] With numerous vaccines in clinical trials, promises from world leaders to expedite the process, and a national effort to develop and distribute a vaccine, the pandemic should end before 2022.

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Premises

Rejecting the premises

References

  1. https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-pipeline-types/579122/
  2. https://www.wired.com/story/why-creating-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-taking-so-long/
  3. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/23/trump-vaccine-fda-guidelines-420803
  4. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/24-08-2020-172-countries-and-multiple-candidate-vaccines-engaged-in-covid-19-vaccine-global-access-facility

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This page was last edited on Wednesday, 30 Sep 2020 at 04:40 UTC

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