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When will coronavirus end? Show more Show less
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It is July 28th, 2020. With lockdowns easing all over the world, some say a second wave of coronavirus will come into force by the end of the year. Others that the pandemic will fade. Is this true? How long before we get rid of the coronavirus?

The coronavirus pandemic will end in July 2021 (1 Year) Show more Show less

While a second wave may arrive this winter, with good government and public health and a fast tracked vaccine we are well on the way to getting this under control.
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Widely distributed vaccine will produce herd immunity

Covid-19 vaccines available in the U.S. and India by the beginning of 2021 will start to form herd immunity. By the middle of the year, target immunity figures will be met.

The Argument

A coronavirus vaccine would drastically reduce the herd immunity threshold—the percentage of the population that needs to be infected or contact the disease to gain herd immunity. In data collected from a U.S. Food and Drug Administration survey, the consulting firm McKinsey and Company found that a vaccine with moderate effectiveness would still reduce the herd immunity threshold to 30 or even 20 percent. [1] For context, without a vaccine, the U.S. is currently at a 2.2% infection rate, the UK has a less than 1% infection rate, and Brazil has an infection rate of about 2.5%. Scientists have estimated that the coronavirus herd immunity threshold could be as low as 43% without a vaccine, but that would involve nearly half of the population having been infected with the virus. A vaccine will drastically lower that percentage. Health officials in the U.S. and India have estimated that a vaccine for the virus will be available by early 2021, with the Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan saying that one in five people will be vaccinated by July.[2] Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of Americas most famed disease analysts, said that while a vaccine could be available by January, it will not be administered to large portions of the population until the middle of next year.[3] If coronavirus case counts continue to steadily dimish, a new vaccine will stop the pandemic by July of 2021.

Counter arguments

The likelihood people will actually take a vaccine is still up in the air. While a vaccine could help curb the virus by decreasing the herd immunity threshold, a recent poll shows 49 percent of Americans said they would definitely not take a COVID-19 vaccine. [4]

Proponents

Premises

Rejecting the premises

References

  1. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end#
  2. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-up-to-25-crore-indians-expected-to-be-inoculated-for-covid-19-by-july-2021-says-health-minister/article32765273.ece
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/dr-fauci-says-coronavirus-vaccine-likely-wont-be-widely-available-until-months-into-2021.html
  4. https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/09/17/u-s-public-now-divided-over-whether-to-get-covid-19-vaccine/
This page was last edited on Thursday, 8 Oct 2020 at 02:39 UTC

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