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Will China's rise as a global superpower be peaceful?

China will surpass the United States economically and is making huge military and technological progress. Will China's rise to global superpower status be peaceful? Or will China's rise not be peaceful due to its authoritarianism and territorial disputes?

Yes, China's rise will be peaceful

China has far to much to lose from conflict with the West, particularly direct military engagement with the USA.

China’s economy is internationally interconnected

It would not be in China's interest to allow conflict that might jeopardise its industrial base or alienate its burgeoning middle class and rich elite.

China benefits from the rules-based system

China has become one of the largest beneficiaries of the international rules based system and would therefore have little interest in seeing it upended.

China is already ahead in many fields

China is already ahead in many fields, therefore grounds for competition between the West and China are far smaller than analysts suggest.

No, China's rise will not be peaceful

China's authoritarian behaviour, poor human rights record, and increasingly aggressive foreign policy make conflict likely.

China is still an authoritarian state

The authoritarian nature of China is in direct opposition to Western democracies and their values around human rights, making conflict between the two increasingly likely.

China cannot co-exist economically with the USA

The trade war between China and the USA is based on a realisation amongst policy officials in America that there is room for only one economic super power in the world.

China's territorial disputes and alliances

China continues to have territorial disputes with its neighbours and military alliances with pariah states.

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This page was last edited on Tuesday, 15 Sep 2020 at 14:24 UTC