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2 comments
For
jtepper5y ago
TL:DR
Gold does very poorly when real interest rates are positive. It only does well when real interest rates are negative, i.e. inflation rates are higher than interest rates. To pretend that gold is a good store of value in all environments is not backed by empirical research. See Larry Summers work on Gibson's Paradox.
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Against
Sceptic4y ago
Gold "does well or poorly" is completely missing the point. Physical gold is money that cannot be inflated by a government and carries no 3rd party risk. Comparing it to a dollar denominated stock is comparing apples to oranges. For 5,000 years gold served humanity as a store of wealth, and in the current fiat currency regime it's purpose was made clear and will be made clear time and time again. Gold is a good store of value in any environment but gold as money does not yield/grow because it does not have to. The growth argument for gold is missing it's key purpose of it as a store of wealth that protects us humans when our inflated currencies and/or assets bubbles collapse. Gold did that in the 70s, did that after 2008, did that after March 2020 when stocks collapsed until the bubbles were re-inflated by reckless money printing, and gold will do it again. Financial protection from crisis and inflation is the key purpose of holding a portion of one's portfolio in gold. Those looking for constant growth to make up for loss of purchasing power of inflation and not hedging with gold are taking the risk of systematic failure. This "growth" false narrative will have those seeking it invest in gold in low yield environment as it's more attractive to hold as other assets do not yield. That helped gold outperform the stock market over the last 20 years by more than 2 times. and 2 decades before that, stocks outperformed gold. Speculation is not a reason to acquire gold and asking gold to be a stock is like buying a race horse to till the farm. Look for growth with the majority of your portfolio and protect your entire portfolio with a smaller holding in gold. If this advice is advocated by Ray Dalio, it'll work for you too.
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