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For
The Post-Cold War Order marked the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of U.S. hegemon with global military, economic and cultural dominance. However, the rise of ‘BRIC’ nations presents a challenge to the previously uncontested US unipolarity. In a report by Goldman Sachs (2003), the BRICs’ emerging economies were estimated to be greater than the G6 by 2050 and China in particular is said to overtake the U.S. by 2039 (U.S $). The potential capability of altering distribution of economic power somewhat diminishes the economic capabilities of the US in maintaining hegemon. John Mearsheimer’s offensive realist perspective implies that states are principal actors and that conflict arises due to the anarchical nature of the international system. States are constantly seeking power, however in the current climate, in is virtually impossible to secure global hegemon and as a result states will settle for regional hegemon instead. This decent into multipolarity would lead to great power competition, inciting chaos and disorder. The ambiguity surrounding the intentions of other states means that states remain ceaselessly concerned about security. This security-dilemma exhibited has led Mearsheimer to predict that, in attempting to push out western powers from Asia, China will come up with its own version of the Monroe Doctrine. In order to supress this, neighbouring states, such as India, Japan and Russia, would be expected to join a US-led balancing coalition. However, resisting the regional dominance of China makes way for potentially dangerous conflict and instability. Through an offensive realist perspective, I come to support the notion that the rise of China will evoke instability into international order Goldman Sachs (2003) Dreaming with BRICs: The path to 2050. Accessed: 10 January 2021
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msiacotos5y ago
Interestingly I dont take an offensive realist approach necessarily. I come from a constructivist view that actors in the system create the system they act in. In my view china is not looking to dominate the system in the same way that the US has. China has a character and history that (in my understanding) supports a "command and delegate approach," as opposed to the US "control and assimilate" approach. Given recent anti-democratic/anti-American sentiment, I think that there might be more support for the rise of China than we expect, especially given China's regional economic foreign policy. It is much more hands off than the US equivalent. China also has a deeper historicity when compared to the US. Americans suffer from a short-termism that isn't necessarily as prevalent in the Chinese political consciousness (im not making a generalization about Chinese people, but the Chinese in the abstract with regard to their political systems, and in reference to the government itself). Therefore, I don't think Chinese foreign policy will be as aggressive or shameless as the Americans at the turn of the 20th century. I also don't think we're falling into a regionally multipolar system but a bipolar system with some middle power regions. I may be ignorant of some aspects of the BRICs coalition and their power relative to the US/China dynamic, but I don't think the BRICs coalition has as much hegemonic potential (at least yet) when compared to China and the US example. Hegemony isn't just economic strength, but total strength: military, diplomatic, economic, cultural, etc. I don't think the BRICs countries are as strong militarily or culturally as the US or China (once again, at least yet).
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For
msiacotos5y ago
Very much so yes, but not the rise of China in isolation. I don't think we can ignore the instability that already exists in the system that will exacerbate the tensions caused by China's rise - namely global inequalities brought about by the globalized economy and the 2008 financial crisis, internal conflict in the hegemonic states of the West (the US and Europe), and growing discontentment world wide with the liberal world order. As the hegemon, US behavior of paranoia and aggression will also increase instability as China rises. So while China increases their regional control in the ASEAN countries and Africa, America will attempt to repair their international reputation after four years of Trump. This will give room for China to expand economically, militarily, and culturally. China and the US will slowly reach power parity which will continue to exacerbate tensions. If US paranoia and aggression persists, great power war will occur in the next 50 years, though I do think thats an over-estimate.
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Turi5y ago
This is Thucydides' Trap (1), which Xi Jinping himself has referred to (2). It's neither side's fault, but a natural law of power. I'm quite looking forward to some multipolarity again. (1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap (2) https://www.ft.com/content/0e4ddcf4-fc78-11e8-aebf-99e208d3e521
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Against
ForzaMan4y ago
There is already much instability in the globe, with the wars in the Middle East and certain regions of Africa, along with political and celebrity turmoil in the more developed countries like the US and other developed countries. Please do not slander China wherever you want using democracy and "human rights" as a petty excuse for being scared because (in this case I'm directly referencing the US government) you're a hegemony and you can't lose your position. If China's rise causes instability, it has only done so for about 40 years and without causing much harm to other countries, but on the other hand the imperial colonist countries in Europe has done it for hundreds of years(though they're finished), leaving a blazing trail of destruction throughout Asia, Africa, and South America. And more so, you Americans have your society built upon the ruins, the blood and sweat of Native Indians, the sweat and turmoil of right-deprived normal people. Is that called "democracy?" Sure doesn't look like it Be paranoid all you want through puppets, but slander? That's overkill, mate.
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