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manshakapur5y ago
**Supernatural clairvoyance aside, there are genuine ways in which educated individuals can _predict_ future outcomes, but almost never to complete degrees of certainty.**
While visions and premonitions are easily deposited in a general bundle of wistful, irrational beliefs in pseudoscience, scientific advancements and new technologies are facilitating increasingly precise calculations that allow us to predict future events.
Of course, this particular statement likely refers to the former: prescience, the psychic ability to determine future outcomes. Prediction itself is not 'seeing' the future; there is a degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Knowing that something will definitely occur is much more difficult - particularly recognising that for the sake of reflexivity and deference to random chance and chaos, even the strongest attempts to determine future events are presented as predictions _just in case_ they do not occur. Because there is always some slight uncertainty, are we really 'seeing' the future?
- We can [predict the weather](https://www.weather.gov/rah/virtualtourforecast) using atmospheric simulations based on fluid dynamics and other complex physical equations. If a meteorologist discerns that it will rain tomorrow, based on data acquired on the present state of the skies, are they seeing the future? No, this rain still may not arrive, and the weatherman is not always correct.
- Using physical simplifications and models of the universe, such as Newton's Laws (among other, more , we can determine projectile trajectories, and say with certainty that a ball dropped from a building will fall to the ground. Yet, someone in the building could swiftly open their window and catch the ball before it lands. Of course, this is highly unlikely, but herein lies the argument: outcomes are _unlikely_, not _impossible_.
- If I have made a decision that I will bind myself to, can I see myself doing it in the future? If I intend to go grocery shopping no matter what, am I seeing my own future by making this decision? No, I still maintain that I am not. Subliminally, I have no way of knowing whether I will trip on my way out the door and suddenly be unable to walk to the grocery store because of a painfully twisted ankle.
Every statement we make regarding the future, is explicitly or nonexplicitly established in uncertainty.
- Let's say we improve our weather simulations as we continue to advance in our knowledge of physical phenomena; is there a future in which we have the technology to predict the future? [Scientists argue against this very possibility](http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2010/01/can-physics-predict-future.html), citing the overwhelming number of factors involved in analysing the effect of even a single tiny droplet onto still water. While simulations and physics equations are continuously being optimised to account for various intricacies, long-term predictions are subject to the smallest of deviations in measurements we make in the present; [we would be required to determine current parameters to an _infinite_ degree of precision](https://www.space.com/chaos-theory-explainer-unpredictable-systems.html) to account for how, as Chaos Theory describes, even a butterfly's wing flap in the Southern Hemisphere could contribute to a tornado in the United States.
For those with anecdotal and/or faith-based reasons to believe in the existence of supernatural precognitive abilities, the most unsatisfying 'justification' often involves ascribing the accurate prediction to coincidence. A more involved explanation is that we have a natural pattern-seeking and associative tendency that allows 'psychics' to make highly intelligent inferences regarding clients' lives. Over time, continuous exposure to the varieties of people and their stories as they approach fortune tellers, allows the fortune tellers to develop a subliminal database of cues and patterns. As this [former tarot reader describes](https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/nov/06/i-was-an-astrologer-how-it-works-psychics), "astrology is one big word association game."
In summary, no one can truly see the future. We can infer highly likely occurrences at a general level - i.e., that the sun will rise tomorrow - but we cannot make long-term, intricate predictions about everyday life without even the minutes degree of uncertainty.
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Commentary
stealthbeast5y ago
...here's the issue, even if people COULD see the future.
If some people truly can see the future, every single one of them must be horrendously immoral. They could've stopped the explosion in Beruit. They could have stopped 9/11. They could have pointed us to COVID-19's patient 0. They could be alerting us right now to all the stuff whistle blowers from the future would eventually uncover for us. They could be helping guide our medical scientists towards cures faster by eliminating tons of dead ends. They could tell us the consequences of our actions as a species.
None of this is happening. So either everyone who can tell the future is a terrible person or nobody can actually tell the future.
(The third option, I guess, is that people who can tell the future don't necessarily have unlimited power/control of what they can see. Awfully convenient, but we don't have to take their word for it because people who claim this have been tested ad nauseam. The fact that they're either lying or deluding themselves is a borderline scientific fact.)
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