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https://www.parlia.com/o/u-s-china-will-go-to-war

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Arguments on how the power transition between U.S. and China would unfold have deduced that it either will lead to conflict, or China will rise peacefully. Both of these are possible scenarios but considering the U.S. foreign policy establishment resisting deviation from the grand strategy of liberal hegemony, and the increasing disputes on issues like trade and international law, it is likely that both countries will engage in militarized conflict. Many scholars argue the rise of China may have potential consequences for the international system. Using the assumptions in power transition theory, China's relative power is increasing rapidly and getting close to match the relative power of the United States (Rauch, 2018). This power is not limited to economic expansion and military capabilities, but also territorial disputes in the South China Sea and expanding their geopolitical reach with the new belt and road initiative. Chinese policy actions indicates their desire to be the only superpower in Asia (Kim & Gates, 2015). Both states are political, economic, and ideological rivals, and with the U.S. taking a back seat on international organizations over the last four years China has already shown the desire to change the patterns of economic and political structures and norms of behavior. They currently lead 4 out of the 15 UN specialized agencies (compared to the U.S. who only leads one), and created the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which policymakers argue is an attempt to challenge the World Bank and the international order (Tung and Yang, 2020). Chinese leadership has also shown assertiveness in their political initiatives crushing protestors while silencing institutions and businesses that criticize their policies, including the NBA after a player tweeted support for the Hong Kong protestors (see Cang article). It is clear that China will no longer bargain with the U.S. and the West on issues they don't see fit and will attempt to change the discourse of the international world system. Shifts away from economic liberalization have also increased distrust among U.S. business relations as China has been accused of intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and hidden subsidies that put foreign businesses at a disadvantage. The U.S. is hardly blameless in increasing hostilities. The Trump administration has confronted China through trade wars and legal actions through individual lawsuits against Chinese firms and has led to the disentanglement of the friendly economic relation they once had and introduced a more hostile discourse U.S. politics (Moore, 2019). With the mobilization and annexation of the Islands in the South China Sea remaining a key issue for CCP policymakers, the U.S. is not likely to appease territorial disputes since they must ensure freedom of navigation operations and access to $3.6 Trillion in trade which is critical to U.S. commerce (Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea, 2021). A confrontation may likely occur within the next 15-30 years or at the very least when they have the capabilities to challenge the U.S. in the future. This is not to say that China will become the dominant superpower in the world, nor that both countries will have a nuclear engagement. Simply means that U.S. hegemony is going to be challenged militarily by China in an attempt to become the only superpower in the region in order to achieve its economic and security goals. Cang, D. (2019, October 07). Why Everyone Is Mad at the NBA About China. Retrieved January 08, 2021, from https://time.com/5694150/nba-china-hong-kong/ Kim, W., & Gates, S. (2015). Power transition theory and the rise of China. International Area Studies Review, 18(3), 219–226. https://doi.org/10.1177/2233865915598545 Moore, S. (2019, July 17). The Abyss Is Opening Under China-U.S. Relations. Retrieved January 08, 2021, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/17/the-abyss-is-opening-under-china-u-s-relations/ Rauch, C. (2018, February 03). Realism and Power Transition Theory: Different Branches of the Power Tree. Retrieved January 08, 2021, from https://www.e-ir.info/2018/02/03/realism-and-power-transition-theory-different-branches-of-the-power-tree/ Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea | Global Conflict Tracker. (n.d.). Retrieved January 08, 2021, from https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea Tung Cheng-Chia and Alan H. Yang for The Diplomat. (2020, April 09). How China Is Remaking the UN In Its Own Image. Retrieved January 08, 2021, from https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/how-china-is-remaking-the-un-in-its-own-image/
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Turi5y ago
The [Thucydides Trap!](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap)
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