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georgiebeddows5y ago
Coincidence is defined as ‘a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection’. Usually, they can be explained through facts and figures, for example, there’s an 11% chance you share a birthday with someone you know and there’s a 6% chance of bumping into someone you know in the airport, on a train or in public. Moreover, coincidences can be explained psychologically, for example, thinking about your friend in the morning and receiving a call from them in the afternoon is probably just because you haven’t spoken in a while or maybe something about the day reminded you of each other. Even if a coincidence is particularly bizarre and almost without explanation, it is often not significant enough to think too deeply into. However, when an unexplainable coincidence of vast strength occurs, the only argument to turn to is determinism. Determinism relates to ‘the philosophical doctrine that all events, including human action, are ultimately determined by causes regarded as external to the will’. This extreme theory is the antithesis of freedom and so if proven, grants that moral accountability is not justifiable.
I exemplify such argument that ‘a strong enough coincidence can prove the theory of determinism’ through the combination of the many coincidences between Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy:
1. Lincoln has 7 letters in his surname… as does Kennedy.
2. Lincoln was the second born child of his family… as was Kennedy.
3. Lincoln married in his 30’s to a woman in his 20’s… as did Kennedy.
4. Lincoln was first elected to the House of Congress in 1846… Kennedy was elected in 1946.
5. Lincoln failed to win the Vice-Presidential nomination in 1856… Kennedy failed in 1956.
6. Lincoln won the Presidential election in 1860… Kennedy won in 1960.
7. Lincoln defeated Stephen Douglas who was born in 1813… Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon who was born in 1913.
8. Lincoln had a Vice-President named Johnson… as did Kennedy.
9. Lincoln suffered the death of a child while in the White House… as did Kennedy.
10. Lincoln was shot on a Friday in the presence of his wife… as was Kennedy.
11. Lincoln died from a gunshot wound to the head… as did Kennedy.
12. Lincoln was shot at Ford’s Theatre… Kennedy was shot in a Ford car, specifically a Lincoln.
13. Lincoln’s assassin John Wilkes Booth was a Southerner known by 3 names comprised of 15 letters… as was Kennedy’s assassin Lee Harvey Oswald.
14. Lincoln was shot by Booth in a theatre and fled to a warehouse… Kennedy was shot by Oswald in a warehouse and fled to a theatre.
15. Lincoln’s assassin was killed before being put to trial… as was Kennedy’s.
16. Lincoln’s successor was Andrew Johnson, born in 1808… Kennedy’s successor was Lyndon Johnson, born in 1908.
Surely, this isn’t just coincidence? Surely this proves that determinism exists? Events are therefore out of our control and the chain of cause and effect prevails. However, if the death of JFK was somehow inevitable because of its causal connection with Abraham Lincoln’s, then Oswald’s moral accountability must be put into question as free will is incompatible with the extreme theory of determinism.
Beitman, Bernard D. (2016). ‘The 5 Most Common Coincidences’, Psychology Today. Accessible at: https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/connecting-coincidence/201606/the-5-most-common-coincidences
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Turi5y ago
Love this argument!
I had no idea of all those coincidences. Has someone done the maths here too? But I still don't believe those coincidences add up to a proof of determinism. Would we have to understand the cause, to justify a theory of determinism?
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georgiebeddows5y ago
Such a good question! Determinism is a contentious theory that advocates against free will and is completely incompatible with any such theory that tries to negotiate the two concepts. Therefore the theory may be too strong to completely accept. Nonetheless, the Lincoln-JFK occurrences remain strongly 'coincidental' and therefore favour the argument that determinism must be considered.
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ellikara915y ago
I believe in coincidences, and even though there are a lot of common occurrences in the lives of Lincoln and Kennedy, I still believe that something happening as a matter of either coincidence or choice (determined by a variety of factors and agents) is stronger, and the example mentioned, even though convincing to some extent, does not necessarily prove the theory of determinism. Even if determinism is stronger than we think, I think accepting it and embracing is would possibly have dire consequences in 'determining' the actions of individuals who would deny agency and free choice. I dread to imagine what would happen in a world like this!
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LeeAnn5y ago
Absolutely fascinating! You've blown my mind with this.
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Debate_4_fun98110mo ago
Coincidences cannot prove that free will does not exist and determinism is true. It may prove that our free will sometimes is constrained and impinged on, by another force, but it cannot prove that free will is not a factor.
The only way to prove determinism, as far as coincidences are concerned, would be to remove the definition of coincidence by understanding the forces that create incredible coincidences and see if these "rules" were always followed or sometimes were not.
So let;s have some fun with this and see if we can identify at lease one of this "coincidence force" rules and speculate whether this rule is being always applied or only sometimes applied, in Kennedy and lincoln's lives.
Let us do a bit of fun analysis of a few of the amazing lincoln and Kennedy coincidences mentioned by one of the contributors here.
In the coincidences listed there seem to be a 100 year rule for major events between lincoln's and kennedy's lives. For instance: it mentions Lincoln was elected to the house of Congress in 1846 while Kennedy was elected to the same body in 1946. The contributor also mentions that Lincoln won the presidential election in1860 while Kennedy won it in 1960 and Lincoln failed to get the vice presidency nomination in 1856 while Kennedy failed to get it in 1956.
But are there any instances where this 100 year rule does not apply? Well lincoln died in 1863 ending his presidency, while Kennedy died in 1965 ending his presidency. The 100 year rule doesn;t seem to have applied here. Is that because Lincoln and Kennedy's free will more clearly exerted it self at some point in their presidency, so extending it despite the power of this coincidence force?
I think most people would agree losing a child is a major life event, Lincoln and kennedy both lost a child while in the white house. Lincoln's died in 1862 at the age of 11 from what was likely typhoid fever while Kennedy's died in 1963 just two days after being born prematurely. Why has the 100 year rule been broken here? As was it broken on the year they got married? Being married is also a major life event.
Other rules of this coincidence force, include strong coincidences in names, places related to circumstances etc. The reader can continue to look at the coincidences, speculate on the "coincidence force" rules and see how they seem to apply sometimes and not at other times.
Another factor that argues against the belief that this "coincidence force" proves we have no free will and determinism is true, is that the "incredible coincidences" listed aren't more common. For instance, there must be millions of biographies written of world famous, note worthy people. So shouldn't almost every biography have an appendix listing the coincidence with one noteable past person, if some "coincidence force" was a strong factor in our lives ? Shouldn;t we know lots of people in our lives that claim they have striking coincidences, to some past person, just as kennedy and Lincoln do?
Could it be that for some reason, Lincoln and Kennedy had a greater amount of this "coincidence force" in their lives than in the vast majority of people. So their free will was more constrained upon than most people? Even if this was the case, it still does not mean they did not have free will, it just means the force was so great for them, that they sometimes appeared to have less free will.
Striking coincidences do not prove determinism but merely suggests that our free will maybe, for some of us, more constrained than it appears on the surface.
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Against
Julianne4y ago
**True proof is hard to come by, and I still think even an unbelievably strong coincidence would probably not be enough to prove determinism.**
- If there is some really strong coincidence, I think it could make us feel like
things were determined -- but, importantly: In what way? By some conscious power/force who made those choices at the start of the line? Or could it more [sort of be](https://multisenserealism.com/the-competition/departing-from-the-consensus/randomness-determinism-and-the-big-bang/) the theory of determinism where the complete chain of reactions follows all the way back to the Big Bang or whatever it was that perhaps most directly began this chain out of which we are the result? In both cases, we probably still might care about the answer of whether things were completely determined beforehand or not, maybe because it may have to do with free will and whether we have it, as mentioned in the thread above.
- Personally, I think that determinism could not ever be proven by even an incredibly strong coincidence. If, say, someone shares many characteristics with someone else that are perfectly spaced out in time in some pattern, we still can't fully prove that there isn't some kind of causal connection between the events, even if that connection is just the chain of reactions that is/has been happening in the universe since whatever most directly started us, like the Big Bang. (I say "most directly" because there could always be something else that happened "before", etc.). Also -- The chain of reactions could even be actually more open-ended in the way of probabilities, e.g., a sort of quantum haze of fields where all the choices happen at once but appear in different branches of the universe/multiverse. Either way, it's still possible that things happen and that sometimes there will be interesting patterns between them despite not being predetermined in any kind of "designer" sense.
- In fact, even if the coincidence leads us to think that some sort of power or force had to be behind the choices of events and how they aligned, it's hard for me to totally imagine that that would be hard proof of determinism, since maybe we still have some sort of free will against _that_?
- Additionally, and interestingly, we could also wonder about what caused any potential determining cause: The [age old question](https://biologos.org/common-questions/what-created-god/) of, if there's a force/power like a God, what "made" that? Was that determined, too? Is it freeness of will all the way back, or is it determinism at some points and free will at others, such as a God towards us but simultaneously a force against God too, either from us back at the God force or from the force creating God itself back at God or even through to us? (Or both?)
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Turi4y ago
Help! Brain-fry: "such as a God towards us but simultaneously a force against God too, either from us back at the God force or from the force creating God itself back at God or even through to us? (Or both?)"
Help me understand what you mean?
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Julianne4y ago
Yes, sorry, I should have not squeezed so many ideas into that last line! I think I only meant to say that free will could even potentially work in a feedback loop kind of way, where what we do affects God somehow. And then that could also be a possible pattern for any force which may have created God itself, with the feedback loop between it and God. (And it could even eventually go down to us in those instances, too, where we affect the God creator by an intermediary with our God, etc.)
All quite unprovable and more just thought experiments of course, but still maybe something that might expand concepts of free will when it comes to our ideas of higher powers and how we theoretically relate to, affect, and are affected by them.
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Turi4y ago
I'm still a lil brain-fried, but it's now on me 😊!
Thank you for unpacking!
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