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< Back to question Why did Labour lose the 2019 UK general election? Show more Show less

On election night 2019, Labour supporters watched in horror as the count revealed Labour's worst election performance in recent history. In the wake of the party's worst night "since 1935", Labour members and analysts attempt to dissect what went wrong. Was it the party's stance on Brexit? An unpalatable leader in Jeremy Corbyn? Or a misguided election strategy?

Brexit Show more Show less

The 2019 election was dubbed 'The Brexit Election' but Labour's Brexit policy was confusing, ill-defined, and failed to acknowledge the will of the people.
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The story is in the data

The data shows that Brexit was a major factor in voter's decision at the ballot box.
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Context

Artificial intelligence analysed millions of social media posts surrounding the 2019 General Election. They found that the Labour Party’s Brexit policy was a key factor in the party’s loss.

The Argument

As the campaign progressed and polling day approached, social-media posts became less focused on issues that Labour performed strongly on, like the NHS, and became more Brexit-focused. This is the clearest indication that it was the party's stance on Brexit, and that alone, that resulted in the devastating defeat at the ballot box. [1]

Counter arguments

Social media conversations are by no means an entirely accurate reflection of the British electorate at large. Using social media posts as a data set would skew the data towards younger, more left-leaning voters. Because many older, more right-wing voters are not on social media, or do not engage with it as frequently, it is impossible to draw conclusions about voting patterns based on social media posts alone.

Premises

[P1] Social media discussions indicate the priorities and opinions of the population. [P2] During the election campaign, social media posts were highly focused on Brexit. [P3] Therefore, Brexit was the defining issue that the election was won and lost on.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Social media discussions do not indicate the priorities and opinions of the entire population.

Proponents


References

  1. http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/politics/ai-knew-it-was-not-brexit-that-did-it-in-the-uk-election/article/564065

This page was last edited on Friday, 3 Jan 2020 at 14:01 UTC

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