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What are the views on the US - China trade war? Show more Show less
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Donald Trump's protectionist economic policies led to the introduction of tariffs on $550 billion worth of imports from China. President Xi Jinping responded with tariffs of his own, affecting some $185 billion worth of US-made products. As the two global economic behemoths enter a trade war, what are the implications for both economies and the rest of the world?

The trade war is good for China Show more Show less

The trade war is good for China because it provides an incentive for market expansion in domestic consumption and exports, encourages innovation, and necessitates diversifying where it imports from. Also, China is more likely to win the trade war because it can last longer and cause more damage to the United States.
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The trade war is an incentive for market expansion

The trade war is good for China because it provides an incentive for market expansion and encourages innovation. The trade has caused China to try to expand domestic consumption, diversify where it imports from, and increase exports to countries other than the United States.

The Argument

The trade war is good for China because it provides incentives for market expansion in domestic consumption, imports, and exports. One result of the trade war has been China focusing on expanding domestic consumption and encouraging innovation which will strengthen their economy. China has been encouraged by the trade war to focus on growing its domestic consumption. Since the start of the trade war, China has implemented new policies such as tax cuts to redistribute wealth and stimulate its domestic economy.[1] Starting long before the trade war, China became aware of the problem with relying on the United States for technological and scientific advancement. It has been focused on becoming an industry leader in new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and wireless services. This can be seen by China being the biggest source of scientific research papers, and Chinese companies leading in 5G technology and often beating U.S. companies such as Facebook in AI voice processing.[1]The trade war is reinvigorating China’s commitment to innovation. The trade war is also requiring China to look into new markets to buy from. Reducing their dependence on the U.S. for agricultural imports will increase China’s food security. Since the trade war, China has been buying more agricultural products from the EU. Looking for other options (such as Russia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and South America) has been an ongoing policy in China; for example, in 2014, China cut its purchase of U.S. corn by 90% and started buying corn from Ukraine instead. If China decides a similar and permanent cut with soybeans, the U.S. economy will suffer.[2] Finally, the trade war is providing an incentive for expanding Chinese exports to other countries. Chinese exports to South-East Asian countries, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, have grown and China’s exports to Europe surpassed its exports to the United States in 2019. This increase in exports could be caused by the fact that Chinese companies are highly competitive because they invest in research and development or the yuan’s 6% depreciation against the dollar which makes the price of their goods highly competitive.[3] Either way, Chinese imports are expanding in other markets which will be beneficial to China’s economy regardless of how the trade war ends.

Counter arguments

Market expansion for imports and exports does not come without a cost. Even importing from other countries, China is looking at higher import prices because nations will leverage the necessity of the trade war to increase their price. [2] Also, expanding exports to other countries will not be enough to make up for the exports to the United States since the U.S. was China’s biggest importer.[4]

Proponents

Premises

[P1] China is trying to expand domestic consumption. [P2] China is encouraging innovation. [P3] China is importing from new countries. [P4] China is expanding its exports to other countries. [P5] The trade war has encouraged all this. [P6] The trade war is good for China.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P5] China was already focused on encouraging innovation and looking into buying more from other countries and less from the U.S. before the trade war. [Rejecting P6] The damage to China’s economy caused by the trade war is much worse than any benefits.

References

  1. https://theconversation.com/us-china-trade-war-is-making-china-stronger-118852
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/09/chinas-surging-food-prices-wont-weaken-its-hand-in-the-trade-war.html
  3. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/12/12/trade-war-chinas-exporters-have-expanded-their-global-market-share
  4. https://www.npr.org/2019/10/10/768569711/has-the-trade-war-taken-a-bite-out-of-china-s-economy-yes-but-its-complicated

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This page was last edited on Friday, 19 Jun 2020 at 01:28 UTC

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