Donald Trump is set to win key election battlegrounds
While national polls show Biden with a lead, the electoral college system prioritizes battleground states. Trump has a great chance of winning key states, which will win him the election. It will be a 2016 repeat.
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Context
Michigan -
-Industrial workers voted Trump in 2016
- Michigan folks resent Biden's '94 crime deal.
- Support is high - "My political instincts are influenced by what I see on front lawns. Drive around metro Detroit and yards are sprouting Trump signs. Giant Trump flags cover the sides of houses and wave from the beds of pick-ups and the decks of boats"(Congresswoman Dumas).
Pennsylvania -
- As in years prior, one of Pennsylvania’s keystone voting issues is energy. Fracking, the practice of extracting natural oil and gas via drilling, has long been important to the state’s economy. Trump supports fracking.
- Trump won in 2016, and this was a shock
Florida -
- FL could decide the race, and it is a swing-state again
- Hispanic support for Trump is high in FL
- "Since 1996, the average margin of victory for presidential candidates here is just 2.6 percentage points, by far the lowest of any state" (Anderson)
- Recent Florida polling has shown a tight race
Arizona -
- Traditionally red
- Polling shows Trump will likely win
- Important to election
The Argument
Trump will win key swing states, just as he did in 2016. FL, AZ, PA, and MI will determine the election.
Counter arguments
Biden will win key swing states, recent polls show a big advantage.
Biden's numbers are higher than those of Hilary Clinton in 2016.
Biden will win PA due to his connection to Scranton and the middle class. This will win him the election.
Polls show Biden will win AZ, and swing it blue.
Miami voters will cost Trump FL.
Proponents
Framing
National polls are empirically unreliable
The electoral college is structured in such a way that less-popular candidates can win
Popular vote doesn't matter in U.S.
Premises
Donald Trump won most battlegrounds in 2016, despite false polling
Rejecting the premises
Biden has an overwhelming lead in all swing states, especially the most key state - PA