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Will Donald Trump be re-elected?

In 2016, billionaire realtor Donald Trump won the US Presidential election, confounding polling forecasts, expert opinion, and mainstream press predictions. In the intervening four years, Trump's leadership has divided the nation. His critics blame Trump for deepening social cleavages, and say he has legitimised racism, deepened economic inequality, and reversed crucial climate change legislation. Others support his re-election, citing his economic record and calling his America First policy vital in the age of uncertainty. So, will Donald Trump be re-elected?

Yes, Donald Trump will be re-elected

Donald Trump has proven himself as a strong President since he took up office in 2016. Much evidence suggests that his supporter numbers have grown, and will lead him to victory in the 2020 US election.

The Presidential incumbency rate suggests Donald Trump will be re-elected

Statistically, sitting Presidents are much more likely to be re-elected regardless of opinion poll results. This suggests Donald Trump will be re-elected in the 2020 election.

US opinion polls are unreliable indicators of the Presidential election results

As the 2016 election showed, opinion polls cannot accurately predict Presidential election results.

Donald Trump has revitalised the US economy

Donald Trump dramatically reduced unemployment and reinvigorated the US economy. This track record is critical at a time when the coronavirus is rapidly weakening Trump's economic gains.

Donald Trump's America First agenda is more relevant now than ever before

Donald Trump's central campaign message: America First, speaks to growing voter anxiety around diminishing US influence and rise of other global actors.

Donald Trump offers a stand against domestic antifa terrorism at a time of social instability

As riots have swept the nation, Donald Trump's 2020 manifesto promises cracking down on left-wing extremism. This is reassuring for many of the electorate who fear the violence these groups have unleashed on the nation.

Donald Trump is set to win key election battlegrounds

While national polls show Biden with a lead, the electoral college system prioritizes battleground states. Trump has a great chance of winning key states, which will win him the election. It will be a 2016 repeat.

Donald Trump will win - Polls aren't reliable and Trump voters are hesitant to be vocal

Almost all of the 2016 election polls showed Hillary Clinton winning. Therefore, national polls should be viewed with skepticism. Studies show that Trump supporters are often unwilling to voice their support for fear of judgement. This is another reason that polls are not always accurate.

No, Donald Trump will not be re-elected

Donald Trump's performance over the last four years have reduced his support base in key demographics. The evidence overwhelmingly indicates that Donald Trump will not be re-elected.

Donald Trump is trailing in the 2020 election polls

Donald Trump is losing ground in the polls, while Joe Biden's share is increasing.

Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic has lost him critical election support

Donald Trump failed to show strong or decisive leadership during the coronavirus pandemic. Many believe his slow response resulted in thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Donald Trump has alienated black voters

In 2016, billionaire realtor Donald Trump was elected to the US Presidency confounding polling forecasts, expert opinions and mainstream press predictions. In the four years since, his Presidency has divided the electorate.

Donald Trump has alienated the core Republican electorate

Donald Trump's debate performance tanked support

National polls show a post-debate drop in support for Donald Trump. He is down to 41% vs. Biden at 57%. Trump made contraversial statments about COVID-19 and white supremacy.

Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19 due to lax event policies

President Trump got COVID-19 due to avoiding proper social-distancing at events. After his COVID diagnosis, Trump went for a joyride to say hello to voters outside of Walter Reed Hospital. This showed that he does not take the virus seriously. He then returned to the White House and removed his mask while still infected.

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This page was last edited on Tuesday, 13 Oct 2020 at 15:16 UTC