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When will coronavirus end? Show more Show less
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It is July 28th, 2020. With lockdowns easing all over the world, some say a second wave of coronavirus will come into force by the end of the year. Others that the pandemic will fade. Is this true? How long before we get rid of the coronavirus?

The coronavirus pandemic may never end Show more Show less

AIDs, the flu, herpes, chickenpox... there are a number of viruses we haven't eradicated yet. These viruses continue to impact society in different ways.
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Many other viruses have emerged and never ended

Many other viruses that emerged a long time ago are still around. They might be, at times, more dormant or less spread in society, but they are never fully removed from the environment.
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The Argument

Many other viruses that emerged a long time ago are still around. The coronavirus, similarly, may decrease over time but will not completely end. The Ebola virus is an example. Transmission of Ebola between humans eventually ended in the West African epidemic in 2016, but the virus was still around. The virus spread again in 2018 between humans in Congo. Countries can contain Ebola through strict isolation, vaccines, and contract tracing, but they cannot eradicate it.[1] Another example is malaria. Malaria circulates and kills over 400,000 people every year. Malaria is never gone and kills a number of people annually. Drawing on the examples above, the coronavirus will not fully end and may show up later. [2] The H1N1 strain is another example. H1N1 caused an infectious disease that remained in the world for a long time but at less severe levels. It circulated for 40 years after its outbreak as a seasonal virus. It took another pandemic—H2N2 in 1957—to extinguish most of the 1918 strain. Some scientists expect the coronavirus to have a similar fate: to become an endemic. An endemic is caused by a virus that shows annually like the flu season. Due to these trends in viruses and infections, the coronavirus may never end.[3][4]

Counter arguments

The world may fully end the virus. There are a few viruses in the world that did not become endemic and were almost fully removed. Examples include smallpox and rinderpest. The world was able to manage and remove such diseases with the help of vaccines and other regulations. Drawing on examples of some diseases that humanity successfully eradicated, the coronavirus may end. [5]

Proponents

Premises

Rejecting the premises

References

  1. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/coronavirus-will-never-go-away/614860/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20faster%20protection%20goes%20away,eradication,%E2%80%9D%20Grad%20told%20me.&text=This%20has%20implications%20for%20a,to%20maintain%20immunity%20over%20time.
  2. https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/malaria_worldwide/impact.html#:~:text=Nearly%20half%20the%20world's%20population,in%20the%20WHO%20African%20Region.
  3. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-covid-19-pandemic-could-end1/
  4. https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/what-is-an-endemic-virus
  5. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-diseases.html
This page was last edited on Thursday, 1 Oct 2020 at 03:40 UTC

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